Sunday, December 3, 2023

NBA Western Conference playoff picture: Warriors, Lakers clinging to opposite ends of play-in line

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The Clippers withstood a 50-point barrage from Stephen Curry on Wednesday to defeat the Warriors and jump into the West’s No. 5 Seed. Golden State fell to No. 6. 

The Lakers didn’t play Anthony Davis on a back-to-back and it cost them a loss to the Rockets, leaving L.A. tied in the loss column with No. 11 Utah and No. 12 New Orleans. 

Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Western Conference playoff and play-in races entering play on Thursday. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season or until all seeds are clinched. 

Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the  No. 8 seed. 

READ: Eastern Conference playoff picture

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

  • Projected seed: 1
  • Current first-round matchup: TBD
  • Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Denver has clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Denver leads season series 2-0 with two to play
  • Projected seed: 3
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers
  • Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Kings currently own via conference win percentage 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Projected seed: 2
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Timberwolves-Thunder play-in winner
  • Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Nuggets have clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Kings currently own via conference record
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Grizzlies own via division leader

4. Phoenix Suns (37-32)

  • Projected seed: 4
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Warriors
  • Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Grizzlies own via division leader
  • Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Suns have clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Suns currently own via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play

5. Los Angeles Clippers (37-33)

  • Projected seed: 5
  • Current first-round matchup: at Kings
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Clippers lead via division win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks currently own via conference record
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Clippers clinched

6. Golden State Warriors (36-34)

  • Projected seed: 6
  • Current first-round matchup: at Suns
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns have clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers lead via division win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Warriors clinched

Play-In Tournament

7. Minnesota Timberwolves (35-35)

  • Projected seed: 8
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Mavericks (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Wolves clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Wolves clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Wolves currently own via division record
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Wolves clinched

8. Dallas Mavericks (35-35)

  • Projected seed: 9
  • Current first-round matchup: at Timberwolves (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns owns via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Dallas currently owns via conference record
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Projected seed: 10
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Lakers (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Portland: OKC clinched

10. Los Angeles Lakers (34-36)

  • Projected seed: 7
  • Current first-round matchup: at Thunder (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Lakers clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage

Outside Looking In

11. Utah Jazz (33-36)

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Jazz Clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play

12. New Orleans Pelicans (33-36)

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves:  Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Lakers clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Pelicans clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Pelicans clinched
  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder clinched

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