Jared Goff has emerged as a top-flight passer in the NFL, coinciding with Detroit’s rise as a legitimate contender. Better late than never, right? On Thanksgiving Day, we’re taking a look at what the betting menu holds for the star QB.
For decades, the Detroit Lions Thanksgiving game hadn’t been anything to get too jazzed up about while enjoying your feast. Detroit is 37-44-2 on Turkey Day, after all.
This year is different with Dan Campbell’s Lions on pace to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and they could even win 12 or more games for the first time since 1991. NFL odds even have the Lions as more than a touchdown favorite over the Green Bay Packers, thanks in part to Jared Goff taking his game up a notch this season in the Motor City.
Jared Goff prop picks
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Jared Goff prop pick
35+ passing attempts (+140)
Even coming off his worst game of the season, a three-interception performance against the Chicago Bears, Jared Goff led the Detroit Lions to a 10-point comeback with under five minutes to go to pull out the win.
Goff has completely won over the trust of the coaching staff in Detroit after many thought he was just a throwaway when they acquired him from the Rams in the Matthew Stafford trade.
“It speaks volumes (about Goff),” Dan Campbell said after the comeback victory. “He didn’t have his best game, but really when you needed him the most in a two-minute drive at the end of the half, that was pretty big. Here’s what we know about Goff: At the very least, he’s going to be mentally tough and physically tough. You can always count on that; you can bank on that.”
He’s been unflappable this season, with pressure rarely impeding his decision-making and his combination of arm talent and efficiency popping almost every week. Behind offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, Goff sits 10th in EPA per play among quarterbacks, third in success rate, and 11th in CPOE. Overall, the Lions are eight in EPA per play on offense.
With Goff turning in his best season as a pro, the emergence of young talented pass catchers, and Johnson’s play designs, the former No. 1 overall pick has been throwing the ball like he’s back at Cal running the air raid offense.
This season, Goff is averaging 36.1 pass attempts per game and has thrown at least 35 passes in six of 10 games. In his last five outings, he’s thrown at least 35 pass attempts four times and is averaging 39.5 attempts per game.
He’s been able to hit at least 35 attempts in all types of games, too, with 53 in a blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens, 35 in a close win against the Chicago Bears, and 37 and 44 in easy victories over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Las Vegas Raiders, respectively.
Johnson wants to throw the football to set up his thunder-and-lightning backfield of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s also willing to put the ball in Goff’s hands regardless of circumstance with the Lions quarterback putting the team on his back late despite how poorly he was playing against the Bears.
With the Green Bay Packers coming to town, the Lions could use a win in their race against the Eagles and 49ers for the 1-seed in the NFC. Green Bay has had a sporadic season coming off an impressive win over the Los Angeles Chargers but is entering this NFC North matchup on a 2-5 skid.
While the Packers aren’t the worst defense in the league by any stretch, they’ve struggled this season under defensive coordinator Joe Barry and are susceptible through the air, ranking 20th in EPA per play and 20th in EPA per dropback.
The defense is only giving up 193.2 passing yards per game but has benefited from playing quarterbacks like Desmond Ridder, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brett Rypien, and Kenny Pickett.
Opposing teams are averaging 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Packers with quarterbacks like Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, and Kirk Cousin/Jaren Hall hitting at least 35 attempts against them.
While Goff only threw 28 passes the first time around against Green Bay, more consistent play from Jordan Love and his young playmakers can make this one a little closer, which should ensure Johnson has Goff throwing slightly more often. They did have a 27-3 first-half lead in that first matchup, which deterred them from throwing much.
Prop: Jared Goff 35+ pass attempts (+140 at FanDuel)
Jared Goff Thanksgiving Day same-game parlay
When Goff is throwing a lot of passes, he’s usually racking up the yards. He’s averaging 274.3 pass yards per game and that average jumps up to 286.8 in the six games he’s thrown at least 35 times.
He’s tallied at least 254 yards in five of 10 games this season and has gone Over 253.5 in four of his last five. Thanks to Johnson scheming his stars open and manufacturing touches for them to make plays, Goff has gotten a boost to his numbers and is averaging nearly 44 more passing yards per game this season compared to his first year in Detroit.
That jump also coincides with Amon-Ra St. Brown elevating his game from rookie phenom to Pro Bowl face of the franchise. This season, St. Brown is averaging 8.1 receptions per game and has had at least eight in five of nine games.
In the five games Goff has thrown at least 35 passes in which St. Brown played — he missed the game against the Raiders — the former fourth-round pick out of USC has averaged nine receptions on 12.2 targets.
Both Goff and Johnson want to get St. Brown the ball and that shouldn’t stop against the Packers. They’ve allowed at least eight receptions to three receivers this season and are coming off a game against the Chargers in which Keenan Allen — a stylistically similar player to St. Brown — finished with 10 catches.
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