Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Jalen Hurts Player Prop: How to Bet Eagles QB on Monday Night Football

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Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts

Prop Bet Guy will be contributing his NFL player props to Action Network’s coverage this season, also tracking his bets in the Action App. Follow him on Twitter.

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Jalen Hurts Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)

Another prime-time game for the Eagles, another spot for me to jump on Jalen Hurts’ rush attempts prop. The Eagles quarterback has cleared this line in seven of nine games this season.

In fact, dating back to last season, Hurts has run the ball at least nine times in 18 of the Eagles’ last 20 games that were decided by two scores or less. When the game is close, Hurts is more of a threat to keep the ball in his hands.

The All-Pro quarterback accrues his rushing attempts in two ways: the designed run (including everyone’s favorite Brotherly Shove), and via the scramble.

Including QB sneaks, Hurts is averaging 6.1 designed runs per game, per Pro Football Focus. This is roughly in line with last season’s total of 6.5 per game.

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The upside today is with the impromptu runs. Hurts’ scramble rate jumps from 5% in a clean pocket to 12% when he’s under pressure, per Pro Football Focus. The Chiefs are leading the NFL with a 28% quarterback pressure rate, via Pro Football Reference — this should put Hurts on the move more than his average.

The low-hanging fruit on this prop is Hurts’ balky knee. However, he reportedly has ditched the knee brace in practice coming out of the Eagles’ bye week, and is said to be feeling better. As is, Hurts cleared this line in two of his last three games before the bye with the knee banged up.

While I don’t have the mobile quarterback quite reaching the 15 rush attempts he registered in last season’s Super Bowl against the Chiefs, I do have him reaching double digit carries tonight.

Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-114 at FanDuel) | Playable to -140

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