Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Jaguars vs Browns Odds, Prediction: NFL Week 14 Preview

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Jaguars vs Browns odds for NFL Week 14 have Cleveland listed as a 3-point favorite on the spread with a game total of 33.5. I’ll be targeting the first half over/under for my NFL pick.

The Jaguars sit atop the AFC South with a record of 8-4. Not only are they in possession of a playoff spot, but they are in pursuit of the one-seed in the AFC with the Chiefs, Dolphins and Ravens. Jacksonville lost a key player in Christian Kirk to injury, and Trevor Lawrence is designated as questionable for this matchup after suffering a high ankle sprain on Monday Night Football. 

The Browns have had their fair share of injuries this season. With Deshaun Watson going down and Dorian Thompson-Robinson in and out of concussion protocol, Cleveland turned to Joe Flacco against the Rams last a week. Thompson-Robinson was a full participant in practice Friday, but the Browns have yet to publicly commit to him or Flacco as their starter. Nonetheless, I’ve got a Jaguars vs Browns prediction.

Jaguars vs Browns Odds: NFL Week 14

Sunday, Dec. 10

1 p.m. ET

CBS

Jaguars Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

+3

-120

33.5

-110o / -110u

+130

Browns Odds
Spread Total Moneyline

-3

+100

33.5

-110o / -110u

-150

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Jaguars vs Browns Prediction

Pick: First Half Under 16.5 (-105)

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Jaguars vs. Browns

Matchup Analysis

Flacco made his Browns debut last Sunday, throwing for 254 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Not a bad start for someone who just showed up. Dorian Thompson-Robinson hasn’t exactly lit it up in his performances this season, only throwing for 1 TD and 4 INTs in four games.

The story of the Browns is their defense. They’ve allowed the third-fewest yards per play and the lowest scoring percentage in the NFL. They create consistent pressure and make life tough for opposing quarterbacks.

Cleveland is currently allowing just over 20 points per game, putting them in the top 10.


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Jacksonville’s defense has been average, but it seems to perform better in the first half compared to the second.

Over the last six games, the Jags have held opponents to just over seven points in the first half. They have forced their opponents into situations that result in negative expected points added for the opposing team.

This tells us the Jaguars are making plays and taking control early on. The Browns defense also thrives in the first half. You can see in the image below that these are two of the three best first-half defenses in the NFL. 

This graph shows each NFL team's offensive and defensive EPA in the first half of games.

There is no reason to believe the Browns will come out of the gates firing given their current quarterback situation. No matter who starts, neither quarterback has shown that they can light up the scoreboard with points.

Given that Jacksonville’s defense has been so efficient early in games, I don’t expect Cleveland to get off to a hot start.

Jaguars vs. Browns

Betting Picks & Predictions

Jacksonville is more likely to put points on the board, but Cleveland’s suffocating defense may be enough to keep them at bay. 

With the possibility of bad weather rolling in, I don’t think the scoring in this game starts early. Expect a slow start!

Pick: First Half Under 16.5 (-110)

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